Record Arab Turnout in Israel Leaves Jewish Leaders With a Dilemma

For the first time in the history of the state, Israel’s Arab citizens have entered the political arena with the power to determine who governs. In the election held last Tuesday, Arab parties won 19 seats in the 120-member Knesset. This total prevents either the bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot from forming a government on their own.

The result stems from a historic surge in voter participation. Approximately 80% of eligible Arab citizens cast ballots, a sharp increase from the 53.2% turnout recorded in the 2022 election. Mansour Abbas, leader of the Islamist Ra’am party, declared immediately after exit polls were released that his party would no longer remain on the sidelines. Ra’am increased its representation from five to eight seats, while the Joint List secured 11 seats.

Analysts attribute the high turnout to fear of the far-right policies implemented by the outgoing government. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir oversaw mass demolitions of homes in the Negev region, while Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich proposed plans to Judaize Arab-majority areas. A post-election poll by the Arabic-language newspaper Kul al-Arab found that 92% of Arab voters cited fear of Smotrich and Ben Gvir as their primary motivation for voting.

The immediate question is whether Jewish parties will accept Arab partners in a coalition. The Joint List, which includes the socialist parties Hadash, Ta’al, and the nationalist party Balad, has signaled openness to cooperation. Yousef Jabareen, head of the Joint List, stated that his bloc is ready to form an alternative government to end what he called racist policies. Ra’am, which previously joined a government in 2021, has also expressed willingness to serve.

Resistance to this alliance remains strong among Jewish voters. Gadi Taub, a professor at Hebrew University of Jerusalem, criticized the idea of including anti-Zionist parties in the cabinet. He argued that Israeli law should forbid parties that oppose a Jewish state from running. Taub noted that attempts to ban the Arab parties from this election were blocked by the Supreme Court, though Balad leader Sami Abou Shehadeh withdrew his personal candidacy.

Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group, described the situation as a critical test for the opposition. She stated that partnering with Arab parties is likely the only viable option for Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, and Avigdor Liberman to remove Netanyahu from power. However, she noted that even Yair Lapid, known for his pragmatism, has said he would not work with Arab parties. Zonszein called the dismissal of the entire Arab sector outrageous for a democracy.

Netanyahu and his supporters have attempted to undermine the legitimacy of the Arab vote. The prime minister posted video clips on X claiming that Arabs were flocking to the polls in record numbers to support an Islamist state. Fact-checkers later revealed that many of the images used in these clips were AI-generated. Netanyahu alleged voter fraud, bribery, and foreign interference, prompting the Central Elections Committee to open an investigation into funding irregularities.