Experts say next U.S. Iran war could hit oil and internet lines

Global energy markets and digital connectivity face new threats as U.S. and Israeli leaders prepare for a potential third phase of war with Iran. Experts predict that once the U.S. midterm election ballots are counted on Nov. 3, military action could resume. Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli analyst who previously served as an intelligence official, stated that a renewed conflict appears almost inevitable.

The United States and Israel have already fought two separate wars against Iran over the past 18 months. The first conflict began in June 2025 with strikes on nuclear sites and lasted 12 days. The second round started in February 2026 following a large U.S. military buildup, with Israeli forces targeting senior Iranian leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Citrinowicz, who now works with the Institute for National Security Studies, expects the next phase to focus on Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and communications networks. He specifically identified internet cables running beneath the Strait of Hormuz as likely targets. He also suggested that Iran might send land troops to attack U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain to damage the American economy.

Since the summer truce ended, direct attacks on bases have slowed, but the conflict has continued to strain the region. The U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports, while Iran has targeted commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. These actions have raised global energy costs. On Thursday, President Donald Trump accused Iran on Truth Social of inflating oil prices before the election by creating fake hits and mines.

A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agreed with this assessment. The report stated that attacks on vessels are designed to pressure Washington into meeting Iranian demands. Those demands include relief from sanctions, reparations for previous damage, the release of frozen assets, and the right to keep enriched uranium.

Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have spent weeks attempting to restart talks without success. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution noted that the war has likely strengthened the revolutionary ideology of Iran's leadership. She warned that retaliation would come through proxies like the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, potentially targeting airports and other economic sites.

The human cost of the conflict has risen sharply. Western non-governmental organizations report that more than 7,000 people have died in Iran. Lebanese media indicate over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. The U.S. has lost 21 service members, mostly in strikes on Gulf bases, while more than 70 Israelis have been killed. Fatalities have also been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly stated he wants to finish the job and bring down the Iranian regime. He faces a close election in the coming days. Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help Netanyahu maintain power by allowing him to form an emergency unity government. The risk, he added, is that political calculations combined with an inflated Iranian threat could lead to an unnecessary attack.

Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argued that diplomacy is not dead but has been narrowed by U.S. maximalist goals. He stated that Iran would only compromise under existential economic pressure and a clear diplomatic exit. Sadjadpour noted that asking Iran to change its identity would not succeed, and he warned that no military knockout punch will force the country to capitulate.