Ukraine Falls Behind Moldova in EU Membership Race, 2026 Enlargement Report Finds

Ukraine has slipped to last place among the four frontrunners in the race to join the European Union, overtaken by Moldova, according to the European Commission's 2026 enlargement report and the roadmaps drawn up for the leading candidates. An analysis published by European Pravda this week shows Montenegro in first place, Albania second and Moldova third, with Kyiv lagging significantly behind Chisinau, even though remaining in the leading quartet is itself positive news.

The roadmaps, a new document forecasting progress based on the Commission's expectations for the pace of reforms in each country, project that accession negotiations with Montenegro will conclude this year and that an accession treaty will be prepared by the end of 2026, leaving only ratification by member states. Albania's treaty is planned for 2028, and Moldova, close behind, is expected to complete work on its own treaty the same year. Ukraine follows at a significant distance.

The readiness scores underline the shift. Montenegro has reached an average of 4 points, 3.98 precisely, a level the EU describes as 'good alignment with EU law' and considers sufficient for full membership, meaning it has essentially finished the technical work for accession. Three years ago Montenegro stood at 3.1 points, Ukraine at 2.3 and Moldova at 1.9, with Albania in between. Since then Moldova has added almost a full point while Ukraine has gained only 0.2.

The analysis argues that Montenegro, Albania and Moldova all sharply accelerated their reforms once the EU developed what it calls an 'appetite for enlargement', while Ukraine slowed down, supplying arguments to those who doubt its membership prospects. The Commission stresses that nothing irreversible has happened yet, and Ukraine is being kept in the same group for political reasons, even at the cost of delaying Moldova's progress. But the analysis warns the gap risks becoming permanent unless the pace of reform picks up immediately.

In 2025 Kyiv lobbied for what it called 'political accession', a fast track tied to the war and peace negotiations that would have let Ukraine pass the point of no return before completing the necessary reforms. The logic was that EU membership is as much of a threat to Putin as NATO membership, so it would be better to present him with a fait accompli. The idea did not take off, and Brussels has since insisted repeatedly that reforms are a prerequisite for membership.

Officially, the Commission again raised Ukraine's score slightly this year, though it noted that in some areas improvement happened despite the actions of the Ukrainian authorities rather than because of them. Brussels continues to make allowances for wartime conditions, arguing, for example, that it is hard for the Verkhovna Rada to hold votes during air-raid alerts. The European Pravda analysis counters that such arguments are sometimes questionable, since alerts do not prevent parliament from putting an anti-corruption strategy or reform of the State Bureau of Investigation on its agenda.

The analysis draws a parallel with 2013, when Ukraine and Moldova were both seeking visa-free travel to the EU. Kyiv, then led by Viktor Yanukovych, was unwilling to carry out the required reforms, so after a lengthy wait the EU split the package: Moldova received visa-free travel while Ukraine waited another three years. This time, it warns, the stakes are far higher because membership itself is on the line.

Last year European Pravda calculated that at its current pace Ukraine would need more than 20 years just to reach the basic level of alignment, a delay the geopolitical window opened by Russia's aggression is unlikely to allow. According to the Commission, Ukraine began showing signs of quickening its pace this autumn, but it is now up to Kyiv, and above all the Verkhovna Rada, to decide whether that becomes a genuine catch-up effort or a short-lived burst of activity. The stated priority is the Fundamentals: rule of law, human rights and anti-corruption, the areas where Moldova's genuine changes allowed it to pull ahead.

As evidence of the paralysis, the analysis points to a bill introducing only a small part of the legislation on a register of bank accounts and individual safe deposit boxes, a requirement for Ukraine to join the Single Euro Payments Area. Even that measure has failed to pass parliament, with some of its opponents describing themselves as pro-European.