UK Aid Gap Widens to £400m

The United Kingdom will likely miss its 2027 international aid target by an estimated £400 million.

New calculations from the Center for Global Development (CGD) reveal that UK aid spending is on track to fall short of the 0.3% of national income goal set by the current government. The researchers analyzed the Treasury's central forecast, which indicates that 2027 aid levels will be £410 million lower than originally planned. This places the spending rate at just 0.29% of national income. The CGD noted that a larger shortfall of £580 million, or 0.28% of national income, is a very plausible outcome. Even the most conservative estimates suggest a gap of £250 million.

The trajectory toward this deficit began with the 2025 spending review. At that time, Prime Minister Keir Starmer reduced the aid target from the 0.7% pledged in Labour's election manifesto to 0.3%. The reduction was intended to free up capital for defence spending. However, two subsequent factors have eroded the budget's real value. Inflation has outpaced expectations, causing national income to grow larger than forecasted. A policy change affecting the budget of the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) also contributed to the decline. The FCDO's overall official development assistance budget fell to 0.44% of gross national income in 2025, down from 0.5% in 2024, a decrease of £987 million.

Ian Mitchell, a senior fellow at the CGD and co-director of its Europe programme, described the situation as a material shortfall in the spending power of UK aid. He stated that closing a gap of even £400 million would be sufficient to halve the planned cuts to Africa. These reductions are expected to cost thousands of lives and represent a de facto UK exit from the south and east of the continent. The CGD urged ministers to add funds for international aid in the upcoming budget to avoid the criticism that will follow missing a publicly stated goal.

The next major fiscal test arrives with this week's budget announcement. Fleur Anderson, a former minister and member of the foreign affairs select committee, said she wants to see higher aid spending included in the final figures. She argued that while she would prefer the government to reverse the cuts entirely, hitting the reduced target is the minimum requirement. Anderson noted that failing to meet the goal is not an abstract accounting issue. She pointed to communities without clean water, girls leaving school, undelivered vaccines, and cuts to peace programmes in war zones as direct consequences of the deficit.

Charities have long warned that deep aid cuts will damage children's education and increase the risk of disease and death in some African countries. Figures released by the FCDO in September showed that the cuts under Starmer's government hit the world's poorest nations hardest. Funding to the least-developed and low-income countries fell by 6.7%, or £118 million. Higher-income countries received a larger share of the remaining budget. The government has prioritised funding through multilateral bodies such as the International Development Association, the World Bank's development arm, and Gavi. It has also maintained humanitarian support. The Conservatives and Reform UK have pledged to cut aid from about £9 billion a year to £1 billion, a level that would leave the UK unable to cover its existing contributions to the UN and World Bank.

An FCDO spokesperson said the multi-year aid allocations published in March 2026 set out spending plans for the next three financial years. These plans are based on gross national income at the time of the 2025 spending review. The spokesperson said that moving to a fixed budget reduces volatility and provides the necessary stability to deliver high-impact aid programmes.