New Zealand election delivers no clear winner as coalition talks loom

New Zealand's general election on Saturday ended without a clear winner, leaving the leaders of the country's two major parties preparing for negotiations to form a coalition government.

Preliminary results show Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's centre-right National Party won 42 seats, making it the largest party but leaving it 19 short of the simple majority needed to govern alone. If National can reach a deal with its coalition partners ACT, on 13 seats, and New Zealand First, on 12, the combined bloc would hold a slim advantage over the left-leaning parties.

Opposition leader Chris Hipkins, whose Labour Party secured 36 seats, showed no sign of conceding, saying the "shape of the next government" would remain uncertain "for a while". The Greens won 16 seats, the Opportunity Party took 7 and Te Pāti Māori, which represents Māori interests, won 5.

More than 99% of votes have been counted, with National and Labour neck-and-neck in vote share, but the electoral commission is not due to announce the official result until 27 November. The preliminary figures point to historically weak support for the two major parties, whose combined vote share sits at around 60%.

Luxon congratulated Hipkins on a "very hard-fought race" and told party colleagues that "whatever the final count, we are incredibly proud of each and everyone for you". He said he would lead a caretaker government until the final results are confirmed later this month, adding: "With those final results there can then be meaningful negotiations."

Hipkins, for his part, said "the people have spoken", adding: "It may take a bit longer to work out what they've said." He said the outcome made clear the "next parliament is going to require all of us to compromise, to work together and to find a common ground".

Much of the attention is now on the centrist Opportunity Party, which crossed the 5% threshold to enter parliament for the first time and has been described as the election's kingmaker because it remains open to working with either major bloc. Its leaders say they will negotiate first with the party that wins the most seats. Speaking at the party's watch event, leader Qiulae Wong told supporters: "We believe that we can change the way we do politics to focus on the future, on the next generation, and on finding common ground."

Professor Andrew Geddis, an election law expert at the University of Otago, said "the Opportunity Party as a wildcard player" could "determine which bloc of parties is able to govern". He cautioned that the outcome could hinge on very fine margins between parties and within individual electorates, saying: "We are going to have to wait for the special votes to be processed and counted over the next three weeks." Special votes are ballots cast outside a voter's electorate, including from overseas.

The tight result followed a campaign dominated by the cost of living and unemployment. Julian McCrann, head of polling at Roy Morgan, told BBC News the cost of living was the main issue for many New Zealanders. "Three years ago, Luxon came in saying he'd be making New Zealanders' lives better and solving these economic issues, but he hasn't really delivered," he said. An annual social cohesion survey found more than half the country no longer sees New Zealand as a land of opportunity, and record numbers of Kiwis have been leaving, many for Australia. The Greens, who proposed forcing the country's two main supermarket chains to divest stores to create publicly owned shops, saw their vote rise by a couple of percentage points.

Under New Zealand's mixed-member proportional voting system, most governments are coalitions. Each voter makes two choices, one for the representative of their constituency in parliament and one for a political party.