Lula Claims 51.79% of Votes to Secure Fourth Brazilian Presidency

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured a fourth nonconsecutive term as president of Brazil on Monday, winning 51.79% of the vote against far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro. The result was declared shortly after midnight UK time on October 26, 2026. Lula described the outcome as a defeat for denialism, ending a campaign that remained statistically close until the final hours.

The margin of victory stood at approximately 4.3 million votes among Brazil’s 159 million voters. Bolsonaro received 48.21% of the total. This final tally reverses the dynamics of the first round earlier this month, where Bolsonaro led with 56.1 million votes to Lula’s 53.8 million. At that time, Bolsonaro held 47.03% of the vote while Lula had 45.16%. Since Brazilian democracy resumed in 1985, no candidate who lost the first round by that margin had ever won the runoff.

Several factors contributed to the shift in public support. The first round recorded a record abstention rate of 21%, a trend more common among lower-income voters who typically support Lula. In response, progressives mobilized voters through digital networks. Millions joined a WhatsApp channel known as Lula’s army to disseminate supportive content. Lula, who recently acquired his first smartphone, began posting on Instagram and TikTok. His digital reach surpassed Bolsonaro’s for the first time during this cycle.

The Bolsonaro campaign faced internal challenges, including allegations of misconduct. The magazine Piauí reported that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party in 2020 with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists. The campaign also drew scrutiny over social media management. A dozen watchdog groups published reports claiming Meta favored Bolsonaro’s campaign. Brazil’s electoral court ordered Meta to prevent unequal treatment of candidates, while the company labeled the allegations false and unfounded.

International politics played a role in the race. President Donald Trump called the trial of Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup, a witch hunt. Trump also imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports. Lula positioned himself as a counterweight to what he termed colonial designs, pursuing a foreign policy that balances relations with the United States, China, and Russia. He declined invitations to join a Latin American military coalition against drug cartels working with the Pentagon.

The election outcome carries implications for environmental policy in the Amazon. Deforestation rates dropped by more than 70% under Lula’s previous terms, during which his government also targeted illegal mining and supported Indigenous communities. However, Lula now faces a congress with a record number of right-wing politicians who are often hostile to environmental causes. Guardian correspondent Tom Phillips noted that voters focused primarily on the economy, security, and cultural issues, with the environment appearing only in the final debate.

Flávio Bolsonaro has refused to concede the result, citing the decision to extend voting by two hours. He stated it was impossible to concede the election. Phillips expects the challenge to fail, noting that world leaders are already recognizing Lula’s win. He suggested Bolsonaro might travel to the United States to avoid ongoing criminal investigations. Lula turns 81 on Tuesday.