Knesset leadership shifts complicate coalition talks

Gadi Eisenkot reaffirmed his coalition’s four core principles during a Yashar faction meeting in the Knesset ahead of Tuesday’s swearing-in ceremony. The principles state that Israel must be a Jewish and democratic state, the government must uphold the values of the Declaration of Independence, all citizens must serve, and Hamas’s governing and military capabilities must be destroyed. Despite these clear parameters, the path to forming a government remains uncertain two weeks after the election. The haredi parties are expected to resist universal military service, while many of the 19 Arab members of the Knesset may struggle to align with the first and fourth principles.

Eisenkot is actively utilizing his parliamentary majority to reshape the Knesset’s leadership and agenda. On Wednesday, the 48 members of the change bloc, joined by the 19 from Arab parties, voted to elect Roy Folkman as chairman of the Arrangements Committee. This body plays a critical role in organizing the Knesset’s work before a new government is formed. The same majority is expected to support replacing Likud’s Amir Ohana as Knesset speaker next Tuesday. These moves allow the opposition to begin influencing which proposals receive hearings and how quickly they advance, potentially setting the legislative agenda while coalition negotiations continue.

The choice of the next Knesset speaker is particularly significant. Eisenkot, in agreement with other change bloc leaders, selected Matan Kahana to succeed Ohana. Reports indicate that the decision was made between Kahana and Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid. Kahana is a religious figure, a former fighter pilot, and a political right-winger. Selecting him over Lapid allows Eisenkot to frame the shift in parliamentary control as a center-right transition rather than a left-wing takeover. This positioning may also help Eisenkot maintain the possibility of drawing elements of the Likud or Religious Zionist Party into his coalition in the future.

However, Kahana’s nomination may create friction with the haredi parties. During the 2021 to 2022 Bennett-Lapid government, Kahana served as the minister of religious services and implemented policies that were unpopular with haredi leaders. He pushed to open kashrut certification to competition, empower municipal rabbis to convene conversion courts, and increase female representation on local religious councils. The controversy over kashrut was intense, with United Torah Judaism’s Moshe Gafni calling Kahana “Antiochus” in the plenum. Although the conversion proposal expired with that government, the kashrut reform was not repealed until July, just four months before Kahana was chosen for the speaker role.

The issue of haredi conscription further complicates the dynamic. In a speech two years ago, Kahana stated that all citizens should enlist and serve, and that those who decline should receive fewer benefits from the state. This stance aligns with the third of Eisenkot’s four principles. The haredi parties are a key factor in the current coalition math. One option under discussion, favored by Yisrael Beytenu head Avigdor Liberman, involves including the 13 members of Shas and United Torah Judaism. This would bring the change bloc’s total to 61 seats, providing a stable majority.

While the election of Folkman and the likely elevation of Kahana demonstrate that Eisenkot has the power to remove Netanyahu from Knesset leadership, they do not guarantee a majority for the Prime Minister’s Office. The choice of Kahana may signal a center-right approach that is well received by the right but less so by the haredi parties. This creates a complex conundrum for the country as it navigates the final stages of coalition formation. Eisenkot must balance the need for a workable government with the political signals sent by his leadership appointments.