Midterm defeat clouds JD Vance's path to 2028 nomination as Rubio, DeSantis and Cruz circle

The Republican defeat in Tuesday's midterm elections is reverberating well beyond the Trump administration, reshaping the contest over who will lead the party into the 2028 presidential primaries. Until Wednesday, Vice President JD Vance appeared to be the natural candidate to carry the MAGA movement into the post-Trump era. Now he faces an uncomfortable question: is he the right person to lead the party after a loss, or has the defeat created an opening for his rivals?

Vance is working to rebuild his alliance with Trump voters, which was shaken by the results. He is directing his message toward what is increasingly called the "New Right," a coalition that wants to preserve Trump's populist and nationalist base while pressing for a fundamental shift in American foreign policy priorities. That includes growing calls to reassess the nature of the US relationship with Israel and the extent of America's commitment to its traditional allies.

The vice presidency had given Vance a clear advantage. He was widely viewed as Trump's heir apparent, best placed to win the president's endorsement and the backing of the Republican grassroots. But the defeat has changed that equation, and some in the party now believe his close identification with an administration that led Republicans to an electoral setback could become a liability.

Newt Gingrich, who served as House speaker in the 1990s, laid out the shift on X. "If the administration had won a big victory, Vice President JD Vance would have had the perfect argument for why he should be the nominee," he wrote. "Now there are a number of people who want to recruit the amazing Secretary of State Marco Rubio as a candidate." Gingrich also named Sen. Ted Cruz, Sen. Tom Cotton, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin as figures who could see the results as an opportunity, adding that "a surprising number of people may decide this is their opportunity to take advantage of the chaos of a stunning defeat and try to be the person who can save the party and the country."

DeSantis, who challenged Trump in the 2024 Republican primaries and lost, was asked overnight whether he might run again and declined to rule it out. "On January 5, I will be a private citizen," he told CNN, referring to the end of his term as Florida governor. He also cast Florida as an exception in the post-election landscape, noting that Republicans held the governor's office and the state's Senate seats. "It's the political equivalent of a meteor strike that went all around the United States, blue states, red states, everything in between. And the one state that was able to hold the line and withstand that is right here in the free state of Florida," he said.

The implication was unmistakable: DeSantis wants to present himself as someone who can hold the conservative base while the national party struggles to expand beyond it. His argument is that the problem lies not with conservative ideology but with how the federal administration has managed its priorities.

Cruz also sees an opening. The Texas senator, who watched Democrats capture the state's other Senate seat and the governorship, called the results a "kick in the ass" for Republicans. A potential 2028 contender, he has criticized pieces of Trump's agenda, including tariffs, which he argues have made everyday life more expensive. "We haven't done enough to address the pain that people are feeling," he said, and he joined criticism of the campaign against Iran, saying the war had gone on too long. He urged Republicans to work with Democrats and declared, "The party has to become the party of the working class again," echoing one of Trump's central promises while implicitly faulting how the administration has delivered on it.

The largest question mark hangs over Rubio. For months, speculation suggested the secretary of state did not plan to run in 2028 and preferred to wait, and conservative commentator Ben Shapiro argued several weeks ago that entering the race now would not serve Rubio's interests. The defeat could change that calculation, fueling demand for a candidate who keeps key elements of Trump's legacy while returning to a more traditional Republican emphasis on foreign policy, the economy and the management of government.

That is the dilemma now before the party: whether the loss is a call to deepen the MAGA revolution or a sign the movement must adapt to the realities of American politics. It is too early to count Vance out, since Trump's endorsement could outweigh any poll and Vance can argue he should not bear sole blame for the defeat. But unlike before the elections, he no longer stands alone. The loss has opened the door, and a growing number of Republicans may now see themselves as legitimate contenders for the nomination.