How Brazil's Service Workers Are Reshaping the Presidential Vote

Brazil's political economy is undergoing a structural change that is directly influencing the outcome of Sunday's presidential run-off.

In Osasco, a municipality in São Paulo state, the physical landscape has changed from industrial plants to commercial hubs. Gilberto Almazan, a metalworkers' union leader, notes that metal, chemical, and textile factories have vanished, replaced by five shopping malls and delivery app companies. He describes this transition as a form of 'Uber-isation,' where workers prioritize flexible hours over the collective benefits and welfare systems associated with traditional union labor. This demographic shift is eroding the industrial base that historically supported President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

The political consequences of this labor market transformation are already visible in recent voting patterns. Osasco supported Lula in 2022 but shifted its support to right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro in this month's first round. Richard Lapper, a biographer of both men, argues that Brazil industrialized late and deindustrialized early, making these economic shifts particularly sharp. He characterizes Lula as a 'victim of his own success,' noting that while unemployment has reached a record low and the country was removed from the UN's Hunger Map, many citizens feel burdened by high prices, household debt, and interest rates. This disconnect has led some long-time supporters, such as a 53-year-old civil servant, to blame the government's management for a heavy tax burden.

The election context is complicated by high abstention rates and a changing electorate. Thirty-three million people did not vote in the first round, the highest number of non-voters since 1998. Flávio Bolsonaro has proposed cutting government spending and ministries while retaining key welfare programs, aiming to appeal to those seeking fiscal change. Meanwhile, Lula’s campaign is mobilizing large street rallies, including one in São Paulo with approximately one million attendees, to project energy and counter narratives about the 80-year-old president's age. In the favelas of Rio, where Lula’s welfare record remains strong, residents like Vitoria, an 18-year-old mother, support his policies on wages and healthcare but remain wary of Bolsonaro’s plan to designate the Comando Vermelho gang as a terrorist organization, a move that could trigger police actions similar to those that killed more than 130 people in Rio last year.