Cost of living pressures Republicans as Americans vote in midterms

Americans vote on Tuesday in congressional midterm elections that could reshape President Donald Trump's remaining two years in office, with Republicans defending their record amid widespread frustration over living costs. Rising food and fuel prices, driven in part by Trump's tariffs and the war with Iran, have put economic concerns at the centre of the campaign and made some traditionally Republican contests more competitive.

Trump has held dozens of rallies, including appearances in Iowa and Kansas during the final campaign weekend. Republicans have also directed hundreds of millions of dollars in advertising towards contests in territory they would normally expect to hold comfortably. Carrie Dann, managing editor of the Cook Political Report, told the BBC that spending in Kansas would substantially exceed Republican expectations, signalling concern about the party's position.

The economic backdrop has weakened Trump's standing since his decisive presidential victory in 2024. Diesel prices rose from $3.75 a gallon before the Iran war began in February to a record $6.52 in September. Inflation has increased from 3% when he entered office to 3.7%, with economists estimating that it would have been lower without his global tariffs. In Iowa, rising fuel and fertiliser costs have added to the pressure on voters.

Republicans face uncertainty in states including Texas, Ohio and Kansas. Stephen Hawkins, global director of research at polling organisation More in Common, said Democrats had credible Senate opportunities in states Trump carried by substantial margins two years earlier. Some Republican voters also questioned whether the president was helping their candidates. Paul Ross, speaking in Iowa, told the BBC that Trump's influence could be detrimental in the current political climate.

Discontent with the president does not necessarily mean voters will support Democrats. Final polling put Trump's approval at about 38%, while surveys including an NBC national poll released on Sunday found that only 29% viewed the Democratic Party positively. Iowa Republican Tim McKinnon criticised Trump's repeated international interventions but said his conservative and Christian convictions outweighed higher fuel costs. "One dollar more on gas is not going to change what we believe in," he told the BBC.

Democrats are confident they can at least capture the House of Representatives, drawing encouragement from polling and the tendency of presidents' parties to lose seats in midterm elections. A Democratic majority could obstruct Trump's legislation and launch investigations into his administration. Democrats might also seek to impeach cabinet members, with Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth considered a likely target over the Iran war. Trump has already relied heavily on executive orders and sought to bypass Congress.

The Senate presents a tougher challenge for Democrats, who need a net gain of four seats to secure control, with 35 seats being contested. Closely watched races include Michigan, Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Maine, Alaska and North Carolina. Several competitive contests remain within polling margins of error, and previous surveys have overestimated Democrats while underestimating Trump.

The results will also help Democrats assess their prospects before the 2028 presidential election, including their ability to compete in Republican strongholds and attract rural voters. For Trump, the vote offers a verdict on his administration as he seeks to shape his legacy. He has repeatedly challenged the elections' integrity and security, leaving uncertainty over how he would respond to significant Republican losses.